When will I retire? Economic impact of an ageing population
By Asaf Cohen and Terry Rawnsley, on behalf of Firstlinks
Meeting the changing needs of older people in terms of housing, support services and work arrangements is a significant challenge facing Australia.
Demographers, economists and policy makers are increasingly concerned about the ageing population and the increasing number of people aged over 45 who will start to transition into retirement over the next 20 years. In 2021, 39% of the labour force was aged over 45-years-old, compared to 32% in 2001. Over the next 20 years, an increasing number of people will start to transition into retirement.
Age of retirement
In 2021, men aged 45-years-old were expected to retire at age 65.2 and women were expected to retire almost one year earlier at 64.3. Over the past 30 years the expected retirement age for women has increased by 3.5 years and 1.9 years for men.
Intergenerational reports prepared for the Commonwealth and State Governments highlight the challenges of an ageing population, including significant impacts on the labour force, consumption patterns, public finances and – in turn – economic growth.
Comparing the major Australian cities (based on the greater capital city statistical area), people in the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne tend retire earlier than their counterparts in Brisbane Perth and Adelaide. This may be driven by the relative cost of living in Sydney and Melbourne, which encourages older people to shift out of the city as they age to a lower-cost regional area.
Important factors increasing the expected age of retirement:
- A shift towards service-based jobs and away from more physically-demanding jobs.
- Overall increased labour force participation among women due range of policy measures that have helped women strengthen their links to the labour force during their 20s, 30s and early 40s.
- Increased demand for paid paternity leave (for both men and women), access to affordable childcare and early childhood education, and greater focus on gender equity within the society and in public policy.
- Strong labour market conditions helping to retain older workers in jobs.
- Changing social attitudes towards older workers.
- Increasing trend towards part-time work amongst older workers.
Length of retirement
By combining life expectancy data with the expected age of retirement, an expected ‘length of retirement’ can be estimated. The length of retirement has implications for individuals as they manage their personal finances, the aged care sector, and for the government in terms of transfer payments and healthcare costs.
Men have seen a significant increase in expected length of retirement – from 9.3 years in 1978 to 17.3 years in 2019. This has been driven by increases in life expectancy, while age of retirement has remained relatively steady between 63 and 65 years old. Women have seen a 3.5-year increase over the same period.
Key considerations highlighted in new report
Based on analysis of an age of retirement dataset prepared by KPMG Australia, the ‘When will I retire’ paper considers:
- Implications of the length of retirement for both individuals’ personal finances and for government spending.
- How an increasing age of retirement indicates that businesses will be able to access skilled labour for longer, although the data suggests that older workers would prefer to work part time.
- The opportunity for both workers and businesses to come together to retain skilled workers and provide older people with income, social interaction and intellectual stimulation.
- The move by older people away from the major cities into regional areas and the challenges and opportunities this presents.
- The need to continue to maintain momentum on gender equity and what actions can be taken to address this.
*Terry Rawnsley is a Director, Demographics & Urban Economics, Planning & Infrastructure Economics, and Asaf Cohen is a Senior Consultant, Planning & Infrastructure Economics at KPMG. This article is general information only and does not consider the circumstances of any person. See report for full disclosure.